Trilateral Cooperation:Nepal-India-China

                                                                                            

Trilateral Cooperation: Nepal-India-China

Abstract-

(Picture)Courtesy to ekantipur.com

The sovereignty of a dependent country is always in jeopardy. On diplomatic front, Nepal has hardly achieved anything significant. Keeping aside its current viability, trilateral cooperation could prove to be instrumental for Nepal if it is able to secure it's own national interest. The main difficultly is in coherently understanding what Nepal's national interest is. There needs to be concrete set of goals that Nepal needs to aim at through the Trilateral Cooperation with India and China. Otherwise, like it usually is, Nepal will not have any say in international platforms, even when it entails its own affairs. Nepal has to be able to discern properly what interests do India and China have in Nepal also, so it becomes a reliable partner for the growing economies too. Further, Nepal's foreign policy needs to be guided by the dictum 'there is no free lunch' when it comes to dealing with other countries, as each one of them are simply trying to secure their own national interest.

It is not recommended for Nepal to enter into such a cooperation if Nepal’s national interest is not possible to upheld. As concerns of India and China are substantial, naturally they will be more careful to enter into such a cooperation. Therefore Nepal needs to be able to anticipate their motives skilfully to safeguard its concerns. Nepal’s Diplomatic apparatus needs to be upgraded so that when such an opportunity arises, diplomats are able to fulfill their duty in the most calculative way possible.

A general backdrop-

It is not an exaggeration to say that Nepal's well being depends on the state of relations it has with its neighbors. The recent state visits of the Chinese Counselor and India's Minister for External Affairs clearly exemplify this reality. Further corroboration is provided by Nepal's history in which many of the important happenings have been influenced by the neighbors. Hence, again the idea of trilateral cooperation between India, China and Nepal has come to stand as an important way out for Nepal out of years of economic despondency and political skirmishes. It needs to be clearly defined what the nature of this cooperation is to be and how to systematically go about it to get the best from it. 

There is no free lunch-

The simple reason why Nepal needs cooperation of it's neighbors is that its daily functioning to a large extent depends on Indian supply of goods, and "good will." This cooperation needs to be a tool that will favor Nepal's national interest on one hand and also make sure its sovereignty is safeguarded. Nepal needs to understand that 'there is no free lunch’ when it comes to dealing with other countries, especially with the neighboring ones.

It needs to be explicitly understood if trilateral cooperation among these countries is possible keeping in mind the distinct contour of political realities in all the three nations. As the sole impetus in international relations for nations is guided by national interests, it is quintessential to figure out where convergence lie for all the three nations. For instance, Nepal's stability is in the interest of both the countries. The problematic thing is that both the neighbors have well-defined national interests and they pursue with authority, but there seems to be ambiguity in even setting of Nepal's national interest. For trilateral cooperation to bear fruits for Nepal, it needs to be certain what it wants out of it and how it will achieve it. Moreover, unlike what usually happens there needs to consistency of goals in the foreign policy of Nepal.

Realizing trilateral cooperation through crafty diplomacy-

Nepal could learn from other examples of trilateral cooperation, like the one among the US, Western Europe and Japan (1 )and the other one among China, Japan and South Korea (2). These examples of trilateral cooperation can be instrumental in understanding the efficacy of such co-operations in general, and also teach how to avoid mistakes that have already been made. The fact that even bi-lateral relations between nations tend to be complicated, trilateral cooperation will require an even more serious framework before it comes into play.

For instance, “It is too early to work on trilateral cooperation,” said Minister of External Affairs Salman Khurshid on the 22nd of April which corroborates the fact that there is a need for establishing a systematic frame work before seeing trilateral cooperation in operation. India is willing for bilateral cooperation with both Nepal and China separately but as for now dismisses the possibilities of trilateral cooperation. Beijing seems to be having a positive outlook towards it. It seems India still has not been able to forgive China for its support to Pakistan during the 1962 Indochina war.

There also seems to be a lot of skepticism regarding Trilateral Cooperation in as well as outside Nepal(3). For India to support it wholeheartedly, it needs to be made clear what is in it for them. There are scholars in Nepal who are floating the idea that Nepal could act as a facilitator of trade between the two giant economies, but the problem is, this will only increase the cost of doing business for the trading neighbors. With already existing borders between them in Natulla in Sikkim, Aksai Chin in Jammu and Kashmir, and in Arunanchal Pradesh the idea of being a trade facilitator for Nepal seems bleak. Involving Nepal will only mean a payment of extra tariffs and customs at the borders.

It is high time that Nepal take advantage of the fact that it lies in one of the most important geo-political positions in the world. But this also means that any action that it takes will have critical consequences as its neighbors have a lot at stake comparatively. Naturally, India and China will be shrewder while dealing, which will possibly affect Nepal's sovereignty in some ways. The two neighbors have set a target of $ 100 Billion trade by 2015(5), they are highly likely to be very cautious about every deal, and even more cautious when a third party is concerned. In the case of trilateral cooperation, the third party is a volatile and unpredictable Nepal.

It is not an easy task to exactly understand their interests. Though both are interested to see political stability in Nepal, it is not a easy task to exactly understand their intentions in Nepal. If it is possible to figure this out, It will be a easy task to deal with them. Nepal seems to be the odd one out in this trilateral cooperation. India and China are becoming significant nations in the international front. Both of them are growing exponentially. But the question is will Nepal be able to keep up with them in diplomatic front? Will Nepal be able to act shrewd and secure it's own stake? For things to favor Nepal, it needs to be well prepared with a credible framework.

Need for a precise framework-

It has been the most common rhetoric in the country that political stability is essential, but this fact cannot be underestimated. Like any rational actor the economic giants will look for certainty in the country in which they are getting engaged. It is natural that with the lack of a stable government, dialogues hardly yield anything beneficial. No matter which political party comes into power after the November elections, there needs to be a fixed set of agendas no matter how many different governments come and go.

With the help of Trilateral Cooperation, investments needs to be attracted to Nepal. Nepal has a comparative advantage in energy and a huge population of cheap labor relative to India and China. If conducive environment can be created for investment, such as flexible investment policies and establishment of rule of law, investment will surely give out good returns. Trilateral cooperation can be used to as a medium to meet more stake holders in all the three countries, especially the private sector as they are the one who are usually interested to invest in foreign lands.

Recommendations-

For Trilateral Cooperation to work properly there needs to be an increase in dialogues among the three countries so that it becomes clear what is to be expected from each other. Nepali political parties need to start speaking the same language while dealing with Indian or Chinese diplomats. The diplomats need to be made more reliable as they are the leading mediators representing a country. Ministry of Foreign Affairs could begin to prioritize trilateral cooperation so that when the opportunity arises diplomats will not be caught off guard.

With enormous economic transaction between the neighboring giants, it is plausible to think there are certain things that Nepal is kept unaware of; as many international norms are, resulting out of tacit agreement between powerful countries. As these nations have a lot at stake compared to Nepal, there may be a consensus between them on certain things which Nepal is not readily informed about. Nepal needs to be clever and understand in what ways these nations could dialogue and try to discern it.

Historically Nepal was a facilitator of trade for India and Tibet. If Nepal is to successfully bridge the gap between India and China, its role needs to be clearly defined. It seems everyone knows where the problem lies but there hardly seems to exist any strategic plan to work towards successful trilateral cooperation.